North Korea escalates nuclear crisis

HONG KONG: North Korea has escalated the Korean nuclear crisis by threatening to reactivate its small nuclear reactor that was mothballed in 1994 under an agreement with the US. This puts Pyongyang in the position of being able to obtain more plutonium for more nuclear weapons, should it choose to do so.
The Bush Administration assumes that Pyongyang already has at least two nuclear bombs and anticipates that it is trying to make more.
The escalation was contained in a statement circulated by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Thursday. It came soon after an unflagged North Korean ship with 15 Scud missiles aboard was detained and searched by Spanish and American forces in the Arabian Sea before being allowed to take the missiles on to Yemen.
The small North Korean research reactor at Yongbyon was mothballed as a result of the 1994 nuclear crisis which nearly restarted conflict on the Korean peninsula. North Korea then agreed to halt not only the use of plutonium produced by the reactor, but also its plan to manufacture nuclear weapons. In return, the US and its allies promised to supply heavy fuel oil while two proliferation-resistant, water-cooled nuclear reactors were being constructed for the North Koreans.
On October 4, the North Koreans admitted to the Americans that they had been pursuing an uranium enrichment programme, also with nuclear weapons in mind, for several years. This was a clear breach of the 1994 Agreement with the US.
In November, the US, together with the South Koreans and the Japanese who are paying for the new water-cooled reactors, retaliated by announcing that shipments of heavy fuel oil would cease from December.
Now the North Koreans, who have all along insisted that it is the US which is breaking the 1994 Agreement, have responded by announcing, in effect, that they will reactivate the reactor which can produce plutonium and tritium for their nuclear weapons programme.
"The prevailing situation compelled the North Korean government to lift its measure for nuclear freeze... and to immediately resume the operation and construction of its nuclear facilities to generate electricity", the statement said.
The reference to generating electricity fools no one. The research reactor could resume operation after a month but cannot produce sizeable quantities of power. In any case, it is not attached to a grid which could convey power to where it is needed.
In 1994, the North Koreans halted plans for two other larger reactors. Experts say these could not be onstream for power production for between four and six years.
So, it is assumed that this latest gesture of North Korean brinkmanship is meant to convey the message that the production and processing of plutonium could recommence at Yongbyon in two to three months.
However, the North Koreans are clearly going to the brink in the hope that the Americans will blink first. "Our principled stand," Thursday''s statement says, "is that the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula should be solved peacefully. It is totally up to the United States whether we will freeze our nuclear facilities again".
This implies that a resumption of heavy fuel oil supplies and perhaps other concessions would result in another North Korean promise to end its nuclear weapons programme and to not do what it has threatened to do on Thursday.
Put another way, the North Koreans, perceiving that the Americans are preoccupied with Iraq and their war against terrorism, are pushing extremely hard for American concessions so that Washington can pursue that preoccupation.
It is an extremely risky gamble for Pyongyang. But it is also a forceful reminder to the Bush Administration that it has been extremely short-sighted as it has made dealing with North Korean issues a lesser priority.